5y backlog benchmark — top 5

2026-05-20 nalaz

Cela quality familija dominira. best_v3 compound +155% iz $1000; best_v2 pada na −75% u fixed modu zbog 59% skip rate-a.

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Setup: 5y backfill završen na .88 (PG), sve sa is_backfill=TRUE. Ranking iz generator_monthly_benchmarks.json po compound equity (max_concurrent=4, fee=0.1%, capital=$1000).

Monthly benchmark — Top 5 (od 19 dovoljnih za simulaciju)

#GeneratorCompound %Fixed %Active months
1growth_threshold_quality_best_symbols_cycle_v3+89.52%+65.57%13/13
2growth_threshold_quality_best_symbols_cycle_v2+79.53%+64.28%13/13
3growth_threshold_quality_blacklist_cycle+77.34%+68.25%13/13
4growth_threshold_quality_best_symbols_cycle+71.38%+59.81%13/13
5growth_threshold_quality_cycle+58.78%+56.04%13/13

Cela growth_threshold_quality_* familija dominira. Worst: green2_red1_test -99%, growth_threshold_cycle -58%, adx_di_trend -41%.

Paper trading (single-symbol pairing, no slot limit)

Naivni paper trading sa fixed stake $100/trade — sve signale uzima bez slot ograničenja.

GeneratorClosedWinnersWin %Avg net %Realized PnLBest/WorstAvg dur
best_v385429834.9%+0.560%$478.38$79.82 / -$17.4519.0h
best_v2122343135.2%+0.172%$210.44$79.82 / -$17.4518.7h
blacklist199167834.1%+0.053%$104.69$79.82 / -$17.4521.0h
best149053135.6%+0.191%$283.99$79.82 / -$17.4520.6h
quality_cycle283792432.6%+0.075%$213.68$79.82 / -$17.4521.3h

Win rate konzistentno ~33-36% — niska, ali asimetrija (max $79.82 win vs max -$17.45 loss) drži pozitivan očekivani povraćaj. best_v3 ima najviši avg net % (0.56%) i najmanje trade-ova — najstroži gate filter.

Capital benchmark (4 slota, $1000 inicijalni)

GeneratorModeAcceptedSkippedRealized PnLFinal EquityReturn %
best_v3fixed78767$1002.18$2002.18+100.22%
best_v3compound80945$1551.50$2551.50+155.15%
best_v2fixed499724-$752.39$247.61-75.24%
best_v2compound113093$205.30$1205.30+20.53%
blacklistfixed1228763$405.97$1405.97+40.60%
blacklistcompound1653338$57.71$1057.71+5.77%
bestfixed1046444$525.85$1525.85+52.59%
bestcompound1314176$329.25$1329.25+32.93%
quality_cyclefixed17051132$681.62$1681.62+68.16%
quality_cyclecompound2057780$140.12$1140.12+14.01%

Ključne opservacije

  1. growth_threshold_quality_best_symbols_cycle_v3 je nesporno najbolji:
  2. Compound +155% iz $1000 → $2551 (najveća equity)
  3. Najmanji skip rate (45/854 = 5.3%) — gate filter taman pravi balans
  4. Najviši avg net % po trade-u (0.56%)
  1. best_v2 ima ozbiljnu manu u fixed mode-u (-75%):
  2. 724 of 1223 trade-ova skipovan zbog slot zauzeća
  3. Skip rate 59% — generator emituje signale brže nego što slot-ovi mogu da rotiraju
  4. Compound mode kompenzuje: +20.53%
  5. Akcija: ne deploy-uj v2 u fixed mode
  1. Volume vs precision trade-off:
  2. quality_cycle: 2837 trade-ova, +14% compound — visok volumen, slabija per-trade ekonomika
  3. best_v3: 854 trade-ova, +155% compound — niži volumen, jaka ekonomika
  4. Pravi izbor zavisi od željenog Sharpe-a, ne samo raw return-a
  1. Compound > fixed za većinu:
  2. Capital se reinvestira u veće slot-ove kako equity raste
  3. Outlier je quality_cycle gde fixed (+68%) bije compound (+14%) — verovatno zbog gubitka u poznim mesecima nakon već vraćenog kapitala
  1. Win rate ~33-35% je dobar znak:
  2. Asimetrija (max win/loss ~4.5x) održava očekivanu pozitivnu vrednost
  3. Sve familije imaju isti maks gain $79.82 — verovatno postoji exit-cap u kodu generatora; vredi proveriti da li je ovo bug ili by-design

Sledeći koraci (predlog)

Provenance

Izvor: crypto_scanner/reports/analysis/2026-05-20_top5_backlog_5y_benchmarks.md